Gold Could Regain Momentum in Q4 Despite Surging Bond Yields
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In 50 words
Gold may recover during the fourth quarter despite a stronger dollar, tighter monetary policy & US Treasury yields reaching two-decade highs, according to FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada. Continued central-bank buying, inflation concerns and potential interest-rate pauses could provide support, although a sustained rally remains dependent on economic and geopolitical developments.
Why it matters
Gold’s performance affects central-bank reserves, mining companies, jewellery markets, investment portfolios and currencies worldwide. India and China are particularly important because changes in international prices and exchange rates directly influence local bullion and jewellery costs. Higher bond yields usually weaken gold by increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets. Gold’s ability to remain above $4,100 therefore suggests underlying demand has not disappeared.
What's next
Markets will monitor: - US employment and inflation figures - Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions - Central-bank gold purchases - Movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields - Negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz - Investment flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds A pause in rate increases or declining bond yields could support gold. Further monetary tightening and dollar strength could delay or weaken any recovery.
Key dates
- August 2026: Gold reaches a record near $4,696
- September: Rising yields push gold down more than 6%
- September 30: Gold completes Q3 with an approximately 4% quarterly gain
- October 1: Spot gold stabilises near $4,156
- Q4 2026: Traders watch $4,000 support and $4,400 resistance
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Sources
- kitco.comView original →
